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Rays -130 vs Marlins- This will be a pitchers duel as Charlie Morton of the Rays and Caleb Smith take the mound for their respective teams. Both aces are coming into this game with 3-0 records and both with sub 3 ERAs. We have a very low total of 6.5 runs expected by both teams. Charlie Morton has a 1.61 ERA on the road this year only allowing 4 runs in 4 games on the road. Starlin Castro is the one player that has given Morton trouble in the past. As long as they can pitch around him, the Marlins pose no real threat offensively and will have trouble putting up runs. Via FanGraphs, the Marlins rank last in OPS vs RHP over the last 30 days and Morton should be able to put up another stellar outing. Caleb Smith most likely will have a decent outing, but the Marlins have the 27th ranked bullpen and the Rays with the 5th best. This is why we are going with the full game line today vs the first 5 innings bet.
Blue Jays vs Giants -120- Giants at home tonight in a late game is a great spot for them tonight. First pitch will be at approximately 7pm PT, which is 10pm ET for Toronto (game will get over at 1am ET). Trent Thorton gave up 5 runs in just 2 innings of work in his last start against the Twins. He has a 5.32 ERA/4.42 xFIP/1.42 WHIP in the last 30 days and has struggled mightily will control. The Blue Jays are 11-28 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons. Nick Vicent will be starting for the Giants tonight, which will be his first start of the year as he is typically a reliever out of the pen. This doesn’t turn me away from this play tonight as Vincent has given up only 5 runs in 7 games in 14.3 innings of work (2.86 ERA)
Blazers vs Warriors -7 (buy a half point)- Warriors had an extra two days to relax after beating the Rockets in 6 last Friday. Conversely, the Blazers had to play the Nuggets on Sunday in a game 7 in high altitude. The line opened at 8 and dropped to 7. There is a chance it drops to 7, but for now buy the half point. I expect Steph Curry to come out hot and for the Warriors to really push the ball tonight!
Here are my top props tonight (in no specific order). I am expecting/hoping for 3 out of 4 to hit.